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As Predicted, Positive Regression Came for These Slow Starters

Updated: Oct 14, 2021

Accountability matters. Analysts should often revisit their predictions and advice pieces to assess how accurate they were. I plan to hold a postmortem after the 2021 season to look at everything I posted on this site before and during the season. But for now, let's look at in-season advice. In an April 22 post (The Regression Fairy is Coming for These Hitters), I looked at six hitters off to slow starts, assessed what was wrong, and predicted imminent turnaround based on historical baselines. Five weeks later, how did I do?


Ozzie Albies

On April 22: .155 BA, 7 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB

Since April 22: .281 BA, 22 R, 7 HR, 16 RBI

Verdict: Successful visit from the regression fairy.


Ian Happ

On April 22: .155 BA, 6 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI

Since April 22: .267 BA, 10 R, 5 HR, 10 RBI

Verdict: Successful visit from the regression fairy.


Dansby Swanson

On April 22: .179 BA, 3 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Since April 22: .274 BA, 17 R, 7 HR, 15 RBI

Verdict: Successful visit from the regression fairy.


Jeff McNeil

On April 22: .163 BA, 4 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Since April 22: .304 BA, 9 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI

Verdict: Successful visit from the regression fairy (But now on the IL)


Michael Conforto

On April 22: .178 BA, 2 R, 0 HR, 3 RBI

Since April 22: .265 BA, 8 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI

Verdict: Successful visit from the regression fairy (But now on the IL)


Marcus Semien

On April 22: .192 BA, 8 R, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 4 SB

Since April 22: .342 BA, 23 R, 8 HR, 23 RBI, 4 SB

Verdict: Successful visit from the regression fairy.


For those keeping score. That's 6/6. Batting .1000. Did you acquire any of these players from panicked managers?

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